An interesting analysis from the UK. If the conversion of music sales from CD to digital downloads results in payment for product going to 100% to 5%, the total revenue has to drop catastrophically. This is consistent with the revenue curve we showed in the last post. Check it out:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2009/jan/16/online-music-illegal-downloads
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The revenue erosion is probably much greater for popular music than classical (where CD sales are already small). It's hard to see how classical's digital future could be much worse than the old business model.
We also need to distinguish between the future of classical music (for which there are already large amounts of recorded material, in many versions) and the future of classical musicians (for whom traditional careers are no longer viable).
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